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A study by the New York Federal Reserve Bank has confirmed what the man on the street has known all along: loan modifications would have a better chance of working if the principle was lowered.  Current programs, which just lower the interest and extend the terms, are likely to fail.

Specifically, the researchers found that if a payment is lowered by 25% because the interest rate was cut, the homeowner is 11% less likely to default.  If the 25% deduction is due to reducing the principle while cutting the interest a little, the homeowner is 27% less likely to default within one year.  Reducing the principle doubles the potential rate of success.

Lenders and the investors who bought the loans are reluctant to lower the principle, even though the dollars and cents of foreclosure are clear: it costs more to foreclose and then maintain a bank-owned home until sold than to cut their losses by making a deal with the home owner.

Homeowners are acutely aware that the value of their home has dropped in comparison to the loan value.  Nationwide, at least 23% of homeowners had negative equity in their homes by the third quarter of 2009.  The Fed Study found that the more “underwater” a borrower is, the more likely he is to default.  When their loan–to-value (LTV) is 115%, homeowners owe 15% more than the home is worth and are 51% more likely to default on a modified loan.  When they have positive equity, they are more likely to keep the terms of the modification.

It comes down to incentive.  If people are paying on a deeply underwater home, they have less financial stake in paying on the loan than those who would lose their own money if they defaulted.  No one wants a foreclosure, but those with positive LTV would lose their equity along with the home in case of default and ultimate foreclosure.

Some analysts think the study could result in a rethinking of federal housing rescue plans.  Currently, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) stresses lowering interest and lengthening the mortgage but does not push for principle reduction.  If lessening the principle to get the home more in line with current market values is the key to successful mortgage modification, existing programs are doomed to failure or at least will have minimal long term effectiveness.  The program must encourage people to make the choice to pay rather than default.  Hopefully, future modifications of HAMP will tackle the thorny issue of underwater mortgage head on.

Facing the potential of having to sell your home? Express Homebuyers will buy your home for cash and have your deal wrapped up in two weeks .  Check our website for some useful secrets on selling your house fast. Then give us a call at 1-877-804-5252. We buy houses as a business. We pay cash, and you can sell your house fast to avoid the hassle of loan modification.

The recession may be winding down in the minds of economists, but tell that to someone who is unemployed or in the throes of foreclosure.  Even tell that to someone scanning the news, and it’s a hard sell?  Why?  The foreclosures keep on coming.  At the end of the third quarter of 2009, one in three homes was in foreclosure or delinquent, often the first step to worse things to come.  Why does the mortgage crisis continue?

New groups of people are affected. The mortgage crisis started when sub-prime mortgages crashed, but now prime borrowers are increasing as unemployment spreads.  Currently, unemployment is at 10% nationwide.

There are regional differences. Nevada, Florida, Arizona, and California, where the real estate boom was the greatest, still have skyrocketing foreclosure rates, and represent 42% of all foreclosures.  Florida alone has a 25% rate.

There is a Shadow Inventory. Large stocks of foreclosed homes – up to six million of them -have yet to be put on the market by banks.  Considering that foreclosures are still adding to the numbers, it will be several years before housing inventories are stable.

Some rescue programs are mis-targeted. Nearly 700,000 borrowers are in trial loan modification programs as a result of the Making Home Affordable program, but many thousands who are unemployed or are in negative situations don’t qualify.  The programs require that you have enough income to pay a modified mortgage and apply only to people whose “under water status “ does not exceed 125% of the loan value.

Some programs fail (and may be doomed to). The rescue programs don’t go far enough.  The payments after modification are still too high for many people, so they default later rather than sooner.  Also, the modification programs often lower interest and lengthen the time but do not decrease the principle.  People are left with the sense they are paying longer for an overpriced house.

Some well-intentioned programs may elongate the problem. Current programs that keep homeowners in their homes as renters once they surrender their deeds may be creative and compassionate, but also may delay the inevitable: the home must be sold at a later date.

Express Homebuyers can buy your home for cash.  Check our list of frequently asked questions to see how this can help you, and then call 877-804-3252 to get started.

How are Federal Loan Modification efforts going so far?

• While 4 million people could be helped, only 825,000 have been accepted into the program so far.
• Only 66,000 (7%) homeowners in the program have moved into permanent loan modifications.
• On average, homeowners save about $500 per month when their payments are reduced to a maximum of 31% of their income.
• Of the homeowners aided by program to date, 52% needed assistance because they lost income; 11% claimed too much non-mortgage debt; and 6% were unemployed.
• About 50,000 (6%) have been dropped from the program because they did not qualify, provide required documentation, or make all of their payments.
• 25% of participating homeowners have failed to make all of their payments while some have made none at all.

The statistics provided are interesting food for thought. Why aren’t more people applying?  Why aren’t more accepted?  Why aren’t more moving to permanent status?  Why are so many defaulting?

There is plenty of fault to go around.

Banks don’t really want to modify loans; when they do, they seldom modify the principle.  The modifications are doomed to fail for many people, especially if they are underwater and people are still paying big notes on homes that have lost their value.

The fact that some people aren’t paying their loans indicates that the modification wasn’t enough for them, their finances got worse after the modification – i.e., they lost their job, or the home they tried to stay is was too expensive for them.  Perhaps the program guidelines need to be changed or counseling needs to weed out those likely to fail and help them find new housing.

 Express Homebuyers can buy your home for cash to prevent foreclosure.  Check our list of frequently asked questions to see how this can help you, and then call 877-804-3252 to get started.